COVID-19 Community Social Risk Estimator (COSRE)

This tool is built on the theory proposed in this article. COSRE manuscript has been published on Health & Place and a preprint is available on arXiv.

Learn more

The purpose of this tool is to give people a reasonable quantitative estimation about exposure risks to COVID-19 in community venues such as grocery stores, gyms, restaurants, work places, and public recreational areas. This is a pure statistical estimation calculated from public data. The real chance could be very different. Please use it with knowledge and interpret the results with caution.

WARNING: The default number of people in the room is 100. This might be a under-/over- estimation. It should be adjusted according to the real situation. According to CDC website, the virus could stay alive in the air and on object surface for a while. In that interval, anybody contacted the air or touched the object surface is considered "exposed". The number of people should count all the person who have passed the area within the virus active period.

Search by ZIP

Input ZIP Code:
FIPS Regions:
County:
Population *:
COVID **:

* US Census 2019 Estimate ** John Hopkins.

Search by FIPS

Input FIPS Code:
County:
Population *:
COVID **:

* US Census 2019 Estimate ** John Hopkins.

Risk Estimator

Population in the Region (Community/City/County/State/Country)
# of People in the Grocery Stores/Gyms/Restaurants/Workplaces/Recreational Areas/Beaches
# of Active Cases in the Region
# of Active Cases in the Region 15 days ago
# of Active Cases in the Region 30 days ago
# of Active Cases in the Region 56 days ago
# of Deaths in the Region
Estimation:

Risk Thresholding

Low Risk
  • This information is for children and adults.
  • Continue hygiene measures, physical social distancing and wear face coverings.
  • Monitor for symptoms with updated information, contact tracing and exposure risk information.
  • Stay home if sick.
Moderate Risk
  • Abide by all recommendations for Low Risk category.
  • Hold virtual online events where possible.
  • Ask to be notified of attendee limits.
  • Review risk and attend venue during low risk time period if this information is provided, e.g. by the store or venue.
  • Increase physical distance in a venue where possible.
High Risk
  • Abide by all recommendations for Moderate Risk category.
  • Limit out-of-state travel.
  • Takeout, pickup or delivery from restaurants is encouraged rather than dining in.
  • Maintain physical social distancing during outdoor recreation.
  • Keep children away from in-person playdates or similar activities outside of the school setting if avoidable and do not allow children on public playgrounds.
Very High Risk
  • Abide by all recommendations for Moderate Risk category.
  • Shelter in Place
  • Avoid all unnecessary travel. If you must travel, avoid crowded areas if possible.
  • Telework if possible. If not, maintain more than a 6-foot distance from others and wear face coverings at work.
  • Avoid unnecessary visits to hospitals, nursing homes or other residential care facilities.
  • Children with COVID-19 should stay home or be sent home for school or child care if showing symptoms. Limit public interaction between children and do not allow children on public

U.S. COSRE Risk Trends Animation

Click the Image to Play

PlaceKey COSRE Webinar Recording

Explanatory tutorial of COSRE presented in PlaceKey consortium: link

Disclaimer

All the information on this website - zihengsun.github.io - is published in good faith and for general information purpose only. COVID-19 Community Social Risk Estimator does not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. Any action you take upon the information you find on this website (COVID-19 Community Social Risk Estimator), is strictly at your own risk. COVID-19 Community Social Risk Estimator developers and owners will not be liable for any losses and/or damages in connection with the use of our website. Our Disclaimer was generated with the help of the Disclaimer Generator and the Disclaimer Generator.

From our website, you can visit other websites by following hyperlinks to such external sites. While we strive to provide only quality links to useful and ethical websites, we have no control over the content and nature of these sites. These links to other websites do not imply a recommendation for all the content found on these sites. Site owners and content may change without notice and may occur before we have the opportunity to remove a link which may have gone 'bad'.

Please be also aware that when you leave our website, other sites may have different privacy policies and terms which are beyond our control. Please be sure to check the Privacy Policies of these sites as well as their "Terms of Service" before engaging in any business or uploading any information.

Consent

By using our website, you hereby consent to our disclaimer and agree to its terms. Terms are subject to future change.

Update

Should we update, amend or make any changes to this document, those changes will be prominently posted here.

4/20/2020 - Add an example score interpretation.

5/15/2020 - Revise the example interpretation system.

5/16/2020 - !!! Estimation algorithm is revised based on the suggestions from Manó and Józsi. Please refer to the Medium article for details.

9/16/2020 - An animation of the COSRE map time series is created to show the trends of COVID venure risk in contiguous United States. Remove specific policy guidelines which are not science-based and inappropriate. The confirmed number of 30 days ago is subtracted from the active COVID cases to be more precise.

10/1/2020 - COSRE paper has been published on Health & Place.

11/2/2020 - Population uses 2019 estimate.

11/3/2020 - The estimation of real active cases is updated according to recommendations from CDC and state government agencies.

11/9/2020 - Fix the problem that the date doesn't move forward automatically.

11/15/2020 - Add safety measures to estimate how many people should be allowed in the venue to bring down the risk to safe level.

1/2/2021 - Website look is improved using bootstrap. The score interpretation is rendered according to risk levels. Remove the notice about new york city because it works now. Enable async loading of gif. A breakdown interpretation of risk levels is added.

1/12/2021 - The PlaceKey webinar recording is added.

1/25/2021 - The animation is changed to semi-month to make page loading faster.

If you have questions about the tool, please contact Dr. Jensen Sun.
Dr. Sun is a research assistant professor from Department of Geography & Geoinformation Science Department and Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems, George Mason University.